5-minute crypto markets: when the crowd is right

1. How the market resolves

The rule is the Chainlink 60-second TWAP at the end of the window against the start. Our spot proxy (Coinbase) agrees with the outcome in 92.4% of windows when we use the last-minute mean, and only 83.9% with the whole-window mean. The last minute decides; the other 8% is the gap between exchange feeds.

2. When the crowd is right

Share of windows where the side the order book favoured at second T was the final outcome. The favourite is locked (never flips again) at a median of 80s (75% of windows by 185s).

3. Buying the favourite late: what it is worth

Rule: at second T buy the favourite at its ask if the ask is between 0.90 and 0.985, hold to resolution, sell the winner at 0.99. "Filtered" adds one condition: spot must be at least 5 bps away from the window's opening price in the favourite's direction. P&L is per $1 staked after the taker fee. One reversal costs the whole stake.

By asset at 252s, filtered: BTC 164 trades / 11 rev / -4.0%  ETH 260 trades / 12 rev / -1.7%  SOL 433 trades / 21 rev / -1.9%  XRP 517 trades / 35 rev / -4.0%  

Read it honestly: before ~250s the rule loses money on every second; from 250s the sample is small and the edge is a percent or two per trade, which a single reversal per 50–70 trades erases. This is a measurement, not a recommendation.

4. Where reversals live

Candidates: windows where the favourite was priced ≥ 0.90 at 240s. Reversals: the other side won. 808 reversals in 18289 candidates.

5. How often the filtered rule fires (last 7 days, UTC hours)

6. Latest windows