5-minute crypto markets: when the crowd is right
Polymarket runs a new Up/Down market every five minutes for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. We record the order book and the spot price every five seconds for every window and score the crowd against the outcome. Everything below is measured, not modelled: exact-second snapshots, no look-ahead, taker fee included.
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The upcoming 5-minute window for each coin, straight from the order book. Your wallet signs the order; it is routed through Polymarket with Polytrading's builder code. Read the statistics below before you do.
35,633 windows over 31.1 days (BTC 8907 · ETH 8908 · SOL 8909 · XRP 8909). Updated 2026-10-05 20:07Z. Refreshes hourly.
1. How the market resolves
The rule is the Chainlink 60-second TWAP at the end of the window against the start. Our spot proxy (Coinbase) agrees with the outcome in 92.7% of windows when we use the last-minute mean, and only 84.0% with the whole-window mean. The last minute decides; the other 8% is the gap between exchange feeds.
2. When the crowd is right
Share of windows where the side the order book favoured at second T was the final outcome. The favourite is locked (never flips again) at a median of 80s (75% of windows by 185s).
| Second | All | BTC | ETH | SOL | XRP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30s | 64.6% (23020/35619) | 65.9% | 64.8% | 64.1% | 63.7% |
| 60s | 68.7% (24469/35614) | 69.8% | 68.9% | 68.6% | 67.6% |
| 120s | 75.5% (26774/35454) | 75.5% | 75.9% | 75.3% | 75.4% |
| 180s | 81.6% (27122/33238) | 82.0% | 81.6% | 81.0% | 81.8% |
| 210s | 84.9% (24819/29225) | 85.1% | 84.9% | 84.7% | 85.0% |
| 240s | 87.2% (17986/20631) | 87.9% | 87.1% | 86.6% | 87.2% |
| 255s | 88.4% (11579/13093) | 89.6% | 88.6% | 87.3% | 88.3% |
| 270s | 88.2% (5957/6751) | 90.0% | 87.7% | 87.3% | 87.9% |
| 285s | 88.0% (2073/2356) | 88.8% | 88.3% | 86.8% | 87.9% |
3. Buying the favourite late: what it is worth
Rule: at second T buy the favourite at its ask if the ask is between 0.90 and 0.985, hold to resolution, sell the winner at 0.99. "Filtered" adds one condition: spot must be at least 5 bps away from the window's opening price in the favourite's direction. P&L is per $1 staked after the taker fee. One reversal costs the whole stake.
| Entry second | Trades | Reversals | P&L / $1 | Filtered trades | Reversals | P&L / $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230s | 10423 | 543 | -1.9% | 4939 | 217 | -1.6% |
| 240s | 9337 | 524 | -2.5% | 3400 | 164 | -2.1% |
| 245s | 7793 | 455 | -2.7% | 2197 | 122 | -2.8% |
| 250s | 6473 | 360 | -2.5% | 1429 | 76 | -2.5% |
| 252s | 5499 | 301 | -2.4% | 1053 | 61 | -3.1% |
| 255s | 5499 | 301 | -2.4% | 1053 | 61 | -3.1% |
| 260s | 4505 | 269 | -2.9% | 679 | 48 | -4.2% |
| 270s | 3039 | 210 | -3.9% | 285 | 26 | -6.2% |
By asset at 252s, filtered: BTC 126 trades / 9 rev / -4.7% ETH 190 trades / 10 rev / -2.6% SOL 329 trades / 16 rev / -2.1% XRP 408 trades / 26 rev / -3.6%
Read it honestly: before ~250s the rule loses money on every second; from 250s the sample is small and the edge is a percent or two per trade, which a single reversal per 50–70 trades erases. This is a measurement, not a recommendation.
4. Where reversals live
Candidates: windows where the favourite was priced ≥ 0.90 at 240s. Reversals: the other side won. 575 reversals in 12676 candidates.
By asset
| BTC | 124 / 3078 (4.0%) |
| ETH | 134 / 3153 (4.2%) |
| SOL | 147 / 3128 (4.7%) |
| XRP | 170 / 3317 (5.1%) |
By crowd confidence (favourite price)
| 0.90-0.93 | 146 / 1468 (9.9%) |
| 0.93-0.96 | 214 / 2486 (8.6%) |
| 0.96-0.99 | 164 / 5389 (3.0%) |
| 0.99-1.01 | 51 / 3333 (1.5%) |
By volatility of the window (bps / minute)
| 0-2 | 57 / 1556 (3.7%) |
| 2-4 | 163 / 3325 (4.9%) |
| 4-6 | 149 / 2976 (5.0%) |
| 6-99 | 206 / 4819 (4.3%) |
Median volatility: reversals 4.81, wins 4.9.
5. How often the filtered rule fires (last 7 days, UTC hours)
6. Latest windows
| Window (UTC) | Asset | Favourite @240s | Price | Spot vs open, bps | Outcome | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:00Z | BTC | Down | 0.95 | -1.8 | Down | right |
| 10-05 20:00Z | ETH | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 20:00Z | SOL | Down | 0.94 | 0 | Down | right |
| 10-05 20:00Z | XRP | Down | 0.93 | 6 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:55Z | BTC | Up | 0.99 | 4.2 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:55Z | ETH | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:55Z | SOL | Up | 0.99 | 7.9 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:55Z | XRP | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:50Z | BTC | Up | 0.51 | -1.1 | Down | wrong |
| 10-05 19:50Z | ETH | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:50Z | SOL | Up | 0.95 | 0 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:50Z | XRP | Down | 0.99 | 8 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:45Z | BTC | Down | 0.95 | 2.6 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:45Z | ETH | Down | 0.92 | 1.9 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:45Z | SOL | Down | 0.93 | 1.2 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:45Z | XRP | Down | 0.98 | 5.3 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:40Z | BTC | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:40Z | ETH | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:40Z | SOL | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:40Z | XRP | Up | 0.97 | 0.7 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:35Z | BTC | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:35Z | ETH | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:35Z | SOL | Down | 0.98 | 4.2 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:35Z | XRP | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:30Z | BTC | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:30Z | ETH | Up | 0.94 | 0.4 | Down | wrong |
| 10-05 19:30Z | SOL | Down | 0.52 | 0.4 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:30Z | XRP | Up | 0.85 | 1 | Down | wrong |
| 10-05 19:25Z | BTC | Down | 0.95 | 1.3 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:25Z | ETH | Down | 0.96 | 1.1 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:25Z | SOL | Down | 0.97 | 3.7 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:25Z | XRP | Down | 0.8 | 1.3 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:20Z | BTC | Down | 0.88 | 1.4 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:20Z | ETH | Down | 0.99 | 0.5 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:20Z | SOL | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:20Z | XRP | Up | 0.54 | 4.7 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:15Z | BTC | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:15Z | ETH | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:15Z | SOL | Up | 0.99 | 4.2 | Up | right |
| 10-05 19:15Z | XRP | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:10Z | BTC | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:10Z | ETH | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:10Z | SOL | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:10Z | XRP | — | — | — | Up | — |
| 10-05 19:05Z | BTC | Down | 0.87 | 2.7 | Up | wrong |
| 10-05 19:05Z | ETH | — | — | — | Down | — |
| 10-05 19:05Z | SOL | Down | 0.97 | 5.4 | Down | right |
| 10-05 19:05Z | XRP | Down | 0.97 | 2.3 | Down | right |